Live now
In-game win chance from score, clock and the pregame spread. Every update re-runs the full forecast below.
Bracket
Championship odds
Share of simulated seasons in which each team reaches that stage.
| Team | Status | Proj. record | Make field | First-round bye | Semifinal | Title game | Champion |
|---|
Conference title games
Dec 5. Most likely matchup, then each team's chance to win the league.
Games left
Win chance for every remaining game. Click a team to lock that result as a what-if and the whole forecast re-runs. Click again to undo.
How it works
Games. Each remaining game is a normal margin around the point spread. This week uses market lines; later weeks use power ratings backed out of those lines, plus home field. A game in progress uses its live win chance instead. Every simulated season also nudges each team's rating, so a team that is better than its number is better all season.
Committee. Teams start from the latest CFP ranking. Wins add credit scaled by opponent strength, losses subtract, and a conference title adds a bonus. The four power-conference champions and the best Group of 6 champion get in, then the best seven of the rest. The top four get byes.
Live feed. The server polls a public scoreboard feed, every 20 seconds while tracked games are in progress. It records finals, picks up point spreads and ranking changes, and pushes each change to this page. If the feed fails, the page keeps the last good data and the chip at the top says so.
Limits. Title-game tiebreakers are simplified to head-to-head, then résumé. The Group of 6 bid is Boise State if it wins the Pac-12, otherwise a generic champion. Forecasts are estimates, not betting advice.